Novig prices
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks for Sixers games: where the price comes from
A sportsbook builds its margin into both sides. A prediction market matches traders and charges a fee, or none. What that means for Sixers games.
On any Sixers night there are two very different kinds of venue putting a price on the same game. They arrive at that price from opposite directions, and the difference shows up in what a winning position pays.
The sportsbook model
A sportsbook is the counterparty. It writes the line, takes the other side of every ticket and protects itself by shading both prices. A game it considers a coin flip does not go up at +100 on each side; it goes up at -110 on each side. Convert those two prices to probabilities and they add to about 104.8%. The extra is the book's margin, usually called the vig or the hold, and it is in place before the opening tip.
Nobody hands you an invoice for it. It lives inside the odds, which is why two books showing what looks like the same line can pay different amounts on the same $100. On Wednesday morning, for example, ESPN's odds feed showed DraftKings at -198 on the Sixers and +164 on the Pacers for the game in Indianapolis. Those two prices add to about 104.3%.
The prediction-market model
A prediction market is not a counterparty. It is a matching engine. A fan who thinks the Sixers win is paired with a fan who thinks they lose, and the price is wherever their orders meet, quoted in cents as a probability. A contract on the Sixers at 66 cents pays $1 if the Sixers win. With no house position to protect, nobody has a reason to shade the line.
The venues make their money in different ways:
- Novig takes no vig. As of October 2026 it charges no fee on pre-game straight trades taken on its app or website. Once a game is live, a trader who takes an existing price pays a taker fee (the rate is on Novig's fee schedule), and a trader whose resting order is filled pays nothing.
- Kalshi charges a taker fee scaled by price, built on a 7% rate. It is largest on a coin flip and shrinks as one side becomes a heavy favorite.
- Polymarket also charges a fee on many sports markets, with a rate that varies by market.
The same game, three returns
Suppose the Sixers are a home favorite trading at 60 cents, the equivalent of -150.
| Venue | Quote | Profit on a winning $100 |
|---|---|---|
| Novig, pre-game | 60¢ (-150) | $66.67 |
| Sportsbook | -160 | $62.50 |
| Kalshi, 7% fee rate | 60¢ | $62.13 |
At the same 60-cent price, Kalshi's fee costs about $4.54 per $100 against a no-fee trade. The sportsbook gets to a similar place by moving the price instead of adding a charge. Only the no-fee trade pays the full value of the probability on the screen. The board runs this calculation for every Sixers game and sorts each side from best return to worst, so you never have to do the arithmetic yourself. How to read the board walks through the formula.
Why the timing matters in the NBA
Basketball swings within a game more than most sports, and a 15-point lead in the second quarter tells you little about the fourth. Live trading is where the fee schedules differ most. On a sportsbook, live odds carry a margin just as pre-game odds do, and it is often wider. On Novig, the live taker fee is largest at 50 cents and shrinks toward the ends of the range. A trader who posts an order and waits to be filled pays no fee at all.
The NBA's injury calendar matters too. Teams file injury reports the day before a game and keep updating them toward tip-off, and rest decisions on back-to-backs can come late. The Sixers have already ruled out Joel Embiid on the second night of one back-to-back and sat LeBron James on the first night of the same weekend. On a sportsbook, the book moves the line when the news lands. On a prediction market, traders move it, and the order book shows you where they moved it.
Where it is legal
Sportsbooks are licensed state by state. Prediction markets are overseen federally by the CFTC, which is why they reach places the books do not. In Pennsylvania both are open: the Gaming Control Board licenses 11 online sportsbooks, and Novig, Kalshi and Polymarket US all operate statewide. Novig is a CFTC-designated exchange available in 47 states; the three where it is not available are Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. A Sixers fan who drives up to Detroit for the Nov. 4 game will find no Novig there. The Pennsylvania page sets out what is open at home, and our rundown of Pennsylvania's rules covers where the law stands this fall.
What "no vig" does not promise
No vig is not a guaranteed better price. On a prediction market the price comes from other traders and moves with them, and a thinly traded market can show a wider gap between the best buy and the best sell than a sportsbook's built-in margin. When that happens it shows up on the board, because the hold column measures every venue's two sides the same way. The board does not assume either kind of venue is cheaper on a given night; it measures both on every refresh.