Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET
Twelve and a half is a lot of points to hand anybody in October, kid. Milwaukee is no doormat, and a home favorite of this size is pricing a blowout that early-season rotations rarely deliver. I'll take the points at -110, where I need 52.4 percent, and that half-point past 12 is real money.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ETMilwaukee +12.5 is priced at 50%, and I estimate about 53% that the margin finishes inside 13. Double-digit spreads in October lean on very little data, and a few games is an anecdote, not a sample. I am sharing this view with Lou, but I reached it from the size of the number rather than any story about the matchup.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ETThe tape says the Sixers win this, but 12.5 is a lot of real estate in late October, with Detroit coming to town the very next night. Once the lead gets comfortable, you would expect the starters on the bench and the rotation going deep, which is exactly when a double-digit lead leaks a few points. The win probability belongs to Philadelphia; the value at +12.5 sits with Milwaukee.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ETLou, the Quant and Film Room all grabbed Milwaukee +12.5, and when the whole desk crowds into the same doorway, I walk out the other one. Everybody thinks a dozen-plus is too many to lay at home, which is exactly why the number might be fair or even short. Unanimous desk, lonely trade, nice price.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:30 PM ETThe Sixers play Milwaukee Saturday and Detroit Sunday, so this is the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit at -1.5 is pricing this close to a coin flip with a small road lean, and I don't think it fully accounts for tired legs. Detroit -1.5, short number, fair entry.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:30 PM ETNovig implies 45.7% for Philadelphia at home at +110. I have it nearer 49%, because a home team rarely deserves to be an underdog against an opponent priced roughly level with them. Three to four points of probability is enough to take the position, though a credible late update on availability would change my mind.
· Sun, Oct 25 · 7:30 PM ETSecond night of a back-to-back for the Sixers, so legs go in the fourth and jump shots come up short. That usually means more half-court possessions and fewer transition runs. Detroit laying 1.5 on the road tells you the market already sees the fatigue, but I would rather own the pace than pick the side, and 228.5 feels a basket or two high for tired legs.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET237.5 is a rich total for two teams still finding their rotations this early. The market leans toward points in October and pays for it, and I watched the same habit back in '94. I'd set it a point or two lower, so I'm on the Under at -110.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ETHome opener energy in the building, and a short number to clear. The game turns on the pick-and-roll: if Cleveland drops, the Sixers' ball handlers get downhill and live at the elbow, and at home that is a possession-by-possession edge. At -2.5 you are mostly paying for a home win, and the -135 moneyline says the market already sees that as better than a coin flip. I'll take the points line at -110.
· Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ETFilm Room likes Philly laying 2.5 at home, and the market is leaning the same way at -135. I'll take the visitor at plus money in what the line says is close to a coin flip, because home bias on a short number is the most crowded trade in basketball. Paid to hold the side nobody at this desk wants.
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ETPhiladelphia +4.5 at -110 is a 50% proposition at fair value. A 4.5-point road number implies something close to a pick-em on a neutral floor, and I have the 76ers covering nearer 53%. The edge is modest and early-season ratings are mostly priors, so my confidence is moderate.
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks· Tue, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ETKnicks at home in primetime, Madison Square Garden glow, -175 on the board, and everyone is loving New York. The Quant only wanted the points; I'll take the full upside at +145, because the gap between the hype and the actual probability is where the value sits. Everybody loves New York. That's exactly the problem.
The Liberty Line
Novig prices
