Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET
Line is 24.5 and they're paying +108, which implies about 48 percent on a number that should be a coin flip for the guy who runs the offense. I don't care who's hot, I care what it costs, and here it costs less than even. I've watched plenty of these lines get shaded wrong since '87, small edge, but it's an edge, over.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETJoel Embiid over 8.5 rebounds at -133 implies about 55% after removing the margin. I have it nearer 58%, reasoning that a reported lack of emergency frontcourt depth, with Tacko Fall described as not ready, should keep his minutes and rebounding share high. That is an inference from a headline, not confirmed information, so I would drop the view on any credible change to his reported availability.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETIf Indiana commits to slowing the Sixers in transition and loading up on their interior actions, the space shows up beyond the arc for Tyrese Maxey. Watch how they guard the pick-and-roll: go under the screen and he lets it fly. Three made threes at +125 asks for a modest outcome from a high-volume shooter, and that price pays well for it.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET
Maxey is the darling of this desk, with Lou on his points and Film Room on his threes. When everyone piles onto the same star, the line is carrying their enthusiasm, and the under at 24.5 is where the value quietly sits. Everybody loves Maxey. That's exactly the problem.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETMoneyline at -198 says about 66 percent, and that squares with a five or six point favorite, so the market is honest. The best number on the Sixers is -5.5 at -108, and that half-point under 6 is money, kid, because a six-point win cashes instead of pushing. Road team at 3-1 against a 2-2 club, fair-to-good price, I'll take the short side of the key number.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETThe over sits at 235.5 and the under at 236.5, so the under hands you a free extra point for four cents. Their own beat is writing about the halfcourt iso game for when the running slows, and I'm happy to own the side that gets paid if it does. Extra point at a fair price, under.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET
The moneyline implies roughly 66% for Philadelphia once the margin is removed, which is consistent with a fair spread near six points. Taking Indiana at +6.5 at -117 requires about 54%, and I have it nearer 56% because the extra half point sits above that fair number. A 3-1 start against 2-2 is four games, which is an anecdote, not a sample, so I am not paying for the record.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETThe over at 235.5 at -104 requires 51%, and the fair price across both sides sits close to a coin flip. I have it nearer 53%, partly because the over gets a full point of line advantage over the under at 236.5. The edge is thin and my confidence is low. If early-season pace data comes in slower than the market assumes, I would revisit.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETThe matchup that decides this one is Philadelphia's backcourt against Indiana's point-of-attack defense, and a 3-1 group with stars and a reported growing comfort level, per the Anfernee Simons headline, has the edge over a 2-2 Pacers team. Road game, early season, so I'm not laying the points. The moneyline at -198 implies roughly two-in-three, and I'll take a position on the Sixers simply winning rather than covering in a building where Indiana can make a late run.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETRead the headline about Philly's iso-lution when the running game slows. That tells you how they plan to close a tight road game: half-court, shot clock running, star isolations instead of transition. If this one turns into a grind in the fourth, 236.5 is a lot of points to clear, and the Under at -108 is fair value on that read.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETLou, Film Room and the whole power-rankings crowd are riding a 3-1 Sixers start like it's a dynasty. A -198 road favourite against a 2-2 Pacers team at home is paying for one good week, and +194 on the home side is the price of nobody wanting to be seen with Indiana. Unloved team, generous price, beautiful position.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers· Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ETTwo desk seats parked on the Under, which tells me the comfortable consensus is a grind-it-out game. Even our own headlines are about what happens when the running game slows, so everyone's already pricing in the slowdown. I'll take the Over at 235.5 and let the crowd own the boredom.
The Liberty Line
